Thank you for validating the message I posted here just a few days ago. My only quibble would be a semantic one: referring to these guys as "young" pitchers. It's been long enough now since they've been drafted that perhaps "youngish" would be more appropriate.
21-year-old phenoms are young. BWJ is young. These guys from the 2018 draft aren't that.
I think calling them young is still appropriate because that can also imply experience as well. Plus, out of 1,068 players who threw a pitch in 2022, just 194 of them were 25 or younger. Nine of them were Royals including all of the 2018 draft guys. They certainly aren't getting younger, but they're young for the big leagues. Only 38 pitchers were younger than 24 in 2022.
As I said this is merely a semantic issue. My problem with the term "young" is that it strongly implies we should be prepared to wait several years for any of these guys to be productive.
That was understandable under the previous regime but not now. As you proved far better than I did in my comment I posted a few days ago, it's go time. Fair or not, that's how it is.
Weren't the pitchers drafted in 2018 fairly well regarded by scouts on other teams? In other words, the Royals drafted well--they just didn't develop well? Also, Junis improved significantly almost immediately after the Royals cut him.
They were, which is why I come back to the quote so often. I wouldn't speak so fast about Junis, though. In addition to more injury issues, he finished the year with a 5.77 ERA in 64 innings after his return from the injury. The start he had was kind of smoke and mirrors with almost identical batted ball stats to what he showed with the Royals in 2021.
Very nice piece, David. Some really eye-opening info in here that a lot of us wondered about, but to hear these things from insiders...
As a glass half-full guy, it gives me optimism that the stuff is there, and with the right people now in place we can start to see what we've suspected all along from these guys. Anyone who has watched the young Royals pitchers the last couple of years has seen the flashes that have tantalized us. All of them have had moments, without the consistency. Hopefully the potential has just been delayed...
My biggest worry is that they're too far gone, but scouts I talk to and others around the game consistently tell me that you put them with better coaching and they take off. Well now they have better coaching. Let's see them take off.
Man, I hope it's not too late for this new coaching staff to fix at least some of these pitchers. I don't consider myself a Dayton Moore hater- he's not a moron and he deserves credit for winning a title, but stuff like this really puts into focus what a mess the last few years have been. From stubbornly plowing ahead with an inept coaching staff failing to get any progress out of these pitchers to the head-scratching roster construction- wth was the plan? I know a lot of us were asking this over and over throughout the process, but now that Moore & Co. are gone, it's even more glaring. I don't know if it will pan out with the new guys or not, and it's not like I've agreed with every move they've made this offseason, but it's nice to feel like they're moving with an actual purpose again.
Agreed on the direction. It certainly at least feels like they're embracing the modern game in a way they didn't before, and it makes me wonder if a few of them were holding back the rest. It's why I'm willing to see what the development team does given the comments from Marsh on the podcast I linked to.
Mr. L, I certainly hope you're right about the new coaching staff's potential impact on pitching development because I for one would like to bury Cal Eldred once and for all and move on down the road.
Thanks for the great piece and analysis. I appreciated your comment on Stetter. At first I was a bit hesitant about making him the bullpen coach after his work with Minors. But, it's not like the Royals didn't make any changes in their Minor League development, as Jason Simontacchi, the pitching coordinator, was let go at end of last year. Makes me wonder if Simontacchi was kind of holding things back at Minor League level like Eldred at Majors.
Also, noticed a couple of changes in pitching coaches, particularly in AA where Carter is now the pitching coach instead of Derrick Lewis. AA pitchers were particularly bad last year especially and I think they kind of outweighed the Royals system as a whole. Do you think the move with Carter to Double-A will have a positive effect on Royals pitchers at that crucial level?
Thanks for reading, Kevin! What's funny is I've been reaching out to people, playing phone tag and all that for a couple of weeks now and Anne puts out her newsletter yesterday and it was just absolutely perfect to help round this out. I don't know exactly how influential Simontacchi was, but yeah, you never really know.
I've found that interesting too about Lewis. You're right, AA was an unmitigated disaster, so they had to make that move. I honestly can't tell you one way or another if Carter is going to be good or bad. I know that there are people who believe he has more to offer in a development role, so I guess we'll see. That's a terrible answer, but hopefully he can help get them back on track there.
Yeah it’s tough to tell too with Simontacchi. Just more curious that they didn’t reassign him which is what they’ve done with a lot of guys. Then again, maybe they did and he didn’t want to.
Agree about AA. Just too important of a level for that kind of performance to happen again. I’m more hopeful for Carter in that role and I thought in limited stunts he connected with the young starters when Eldred wasn’t around. But some improvement in AA will definitely be crucial next year
Great insight! I have not been this excited for a season in a few years. I fully believe that the change at the top, along with the AA change, the pitchers will improve. I know, much room to improve, but think about this.... if the pitching can improve 25%, that would be close to an 80 win season. We have the studs on the field, as 10-15%improvement from them. And I, for one, believe those numbers are achievable. In Anne's article, I believe, she stated how the clubhouse was tense. And now the players are EXCITED and LOOSE! I may be a dreamer, but every spring, don't we all dream just a little?
The clubhouse might be the biggest change, even with the pitching. You might remember I wrote a few weeks ago that someone said that change at the top was worth 10 wins. The more I hear, the more I think me discounting it was THAT much may have been wrong.
David’s getting excited and spring is in the air as he’s now onboard with a change at the top being worth 10 wins! Players win games, not upper management so I have my doubts. We’ll see though!
Thanks David. I don’t know that I see it with all of these guys that the scouts quoted. I don’t see it with Bubic. His command is not near good enough. But regardless, I’m ready to be done with these guys. Not in the sense that move on from them, but I’m ready for this year to KNOW….you know? Lol Maybe that’s too much to ask for in one year…but we are 5 years in now. If it doesn’t work with Sweeney this year then I’m willing to say it’s the pitchers. I’m just glad we are finally to the point of finding out one way or the other and not the constant….maybe game the Royals have always been so good at. No improvement this year, let’s move on…I’m glad we are finally here.
Sure, his command isn't good enough now. Competent instruction might actually be able to pinpoint a delivery flaw or something that who was previously here couldn't. And even if they can't, they have so many of these guys that if Bubic isn't it, the next one might be.
Yep, very true. Regardless of player, it’s time to know on these guys now. As long as it progresses and the same thing doesn’t repeat itself next year about giving these guys more and more chances if it isn’t working I’ll be good.
I don't think they'll just release everyone or anything, but they are aware that the time is now to at least show that there's more in there than what we've seen.
Thanks, David. Very informative, interesting and encouraging. Given that horrible pitching development and performance at the big-league level was almost certainly the #1 reason for a turnover of the front office and club management, all of this is good news and clearly the focus for those changes.
However, I'm also interested in what the change in direction may be on the hitting side, given that we retained Zumwalt. What changes might Q help drive on that side of the house? How might they use analytics (now a big focus) to improve club hitting?
The hitting instruction is already very heavy in analytics and in using data. I'm sure there'll be some different methods brought over from Tampa regarding that, but they're very well regarded in the industry in their hitting development now.
Great evaluation. The success the Royals have in the future are going to further indict the DM -CE regime. I believe there are good years just ahead for the Royals. DM could do us one final favor, however, take Hunter Dozier off our hands. He is the one who liked him and over paid him.
A problem that I see with Bubic, Keller, Kowar, etc is that they were brought up to be starting pitchers and now I don't even know if they would make good relief arms. Some of that is psychological on top of the skills stuff.
With the trades JJ has made, it looks like we're focused on preparing anyone coming up to be in the bullpen. Andrew Hoffman spent the offseason with our bullpen coaches.
With our "1st Round Class" it felt like there was a strategy of "we'll draft 5 of you and 1 or 2 might work into the rotation." Now it's starting to feel like "we'll get you in once you get x & y down and you'll get in as relief first... and then we'll work on your skills as you're in relief until you're ready to start"
This might be better for building up a culture for pitchers in this organization. During the Matheny era the pitching staff always came off as isolated.
Thanks for reading! I wouldn't put Keller in the group with any of the others for the simple reason that he's in his last year of team control and was actually pretty good for three years.
As for the rest, it's easy to look at anybody who has struggled and not see a reliever. Many were convinced Wade Davis would struggle in the bullpen. He was a little different because he'd done it before as a reliever and I'm certainly not saying any of these starters could be that good, but it's generally difficult to see struggling pitchers succeeding.
But if you look at Kowar's ability to hit upper-90s or more in a relief role with that changeup, I could see it. Lynch with the slider as a short-inning reliever? I could see it. Heasley has thrown much harder in his minor league career and he has some secondary pitches. I could see it. Bubic is the one who I just don't see, but that's okay too.
I don't mind the idea of breaking guys in as relievers, though, in general. I think it's a little old school, but it's been proven to work for a lot of pitchers.
If you look at every trade we've made it's been for a RP or RP that might have some hope of being an end of rotation guy (Sikkema/Way/Castillo). Even our draft picks were focused on finding Relief. Seems like before Dayton was fired there was some sort of Dave Ramsey / Caleb Hammer financial audit where we were setting up for development of the bullpen.
Outside of Salvy and Javy , I don't feel like we have pieces to trade for SP prospects. So we're going to have to deal with what we have for another season.
I absolutely hated the trade with the Yankees because it felt like Ken Waldichuk could have been a no.3 guy on opening day. And although I think the Royals generally trade good players and don't get Top 30 prospects in return (like the As or even Yankees - like they did with Gallo ) ... it feels like the Royals have some sort of strategy change so I'm hopefully it works out.
I think that's a little simplistic because in today's game so many pitchers are kind of on the border, especially as roles continue to evolve. If they do want to target starters in a trade, Salvy would likely bring one back, but so would MJ Melendez or others who they just aren't going to be trading anytime soon, nor should they.
I will tell you that the Yankees weren't trading Waldichuk for Benintendi.
Great summary. I wonder how quickly we'll see the impact of all this. Not sure if it's reasonable to expect results right away or if it takes time to implement a big overhaul.
Sometimes I think it could be quick if it's a tweak here or there, but then sometimes I think about some of the games they've pitched and think there may need to be a total overhaul and that takes time, so who knows? But it'll be interesting at least!
You’re not the only one haunted by that article! And I know I’m not alone feeling cheated by the Royals when I read how well Junis was doing with the Giants. I will be cautiously optimistic, though. Baseball is not boring!!
I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about Junis. I mentioned it in another comment, but he was working with basically the same batted ball profile early in the year that he had in 2021 with the Royals and then when he came back from an injury got hit around pretty hard.
It is interesting the Royals Weekly talked to Alec Marsh and he said that previously that they wouldnt stay in Surprise but retreated to private gyms in what Royals Weekly deemed the Royals cookie cutter approach. However Alec was excited as the new huys are light years ahead of the old regime in their approach to pitching development.
I think the point is that they were getting their own instruction outside of the organization and then getting multiple messages whereas now they're comfortable with what the organization is providing and everyone is on the same page.
It all goes back to poor coaching of the young arms. Coaches that didn't have a clue on how to develop, nurture and them or their pitch development. Coaches that never had them prepared to start games, were never ready when they came in to relieve, and some very poor pitch selection. Catchers even Perez that didn’t frame pitches properly and floating mitts which decreased some of their close strike calls. Way too many pitches wasted when up on batters
lurking for way too long, and really enjoying your knowledgable insight for a while, but had to subscribe after this article - well done!
I am a new royals fan, but longtime baseball fan. Happy to get on now before the bandwagon leaves. I think they could be a real "team" - which is rare these days. If Singer and greinke stay on track, and just one SP steps up? And the "kids" keep swinging and tcob?... I think the royals will be in contention sooner than later. Baseball is fun!
Thank you for validating the message I posted here just a few days ago. My only quibble would be a semantic one: referring to these guys as "young" pitchers. It's been long enough now since they've been drafted that perhaps "youngish" would be more appropriate.
21-year-old phenoms are young. BWJ is young. These guys from the 2018 draft aren't that.
I think calling them young is still appropriate because that can also imply experience as well. Plus, out of 1,068 players who threw a pitch in 2022, just 194 of them were 25 or younger. Nine of them were Royals including all of the 2018 draft guys. They certainly aren't getting younger, but they're young for the big leagues. Only 38 pitchers were younger than 24 in 2022.
As I said this is merely a semantic issue. My problem with the term "young" is that it strongly implies we should be prepared to wait several years for any of these guys to be productive.
That was understandable under the previous regime but not now. As you proved far better than I did in my comment I posted a few days ago, it's go time. Fair or not, that's how it is.
Weren't the pitchers drafted in 2018 fairly well regarded by scouts on other teams? In other words, the Royals drafted well--they just didn't develop well? Also, Junis improved significantly almost immediately after the Royals cut him.
They were, which is why I come back to the quote so often. I wouldn't speak so fast about Junis, though. In addition to more injury issues, he finished the year with a 5.77 ERA in 64 innings after his return from the injury. The start he had was kind of smoke and mirrors with almost identical batted ball stats to what he showed with the Royals in 2021.
Very nice piece, David. Some really eye-opening info in here that a lot of us wondered about, but to hear these things from insiders...
As a glass half-full guy, it gives me optimism that the stuff is there, and with the right people now in place we can start to see what we've suspected all along from these guys. Anyone who has watched the young Royals pitchers the last couple of years has seen the flashes that have tantalized us. All of them have had moments, without the consistency. Hopefully the potential has just been delayed...
My biggest worry is that they're too far gone, but scouts I talk to and others around the game consistently tell me that you put them with better coaching and they take off. Well now they have better coaching. Let's see them take off.
Man, I hope it's not too late for this new coaching staff to fix at least some of these pitchers. I don't consider myself a Dayton Moore hater- he's not a moron and he deserves credit for winning a title, but stuff like this really puts into focus what a mess the last few years have been. From stubbornly plowing ahead with an inept coaching staff failing to get any progress out of these pitchers to the head-scratching roster construction- wth was the plan? I know a lot of us were asking this over and over throughout the process, but now that Moore & Co. are gone, it's even more glaring. I don't know if it will pan out with the new guys or not, and it's not like I've agreed with every move they've made this offseason, but it's nice to feel like they're moving with an actual purpose again.
Agreed on the direction. It certainly at least feels like they're embracing the modern game in a way they didn't before, and it makes me wonder if a few of them were holding back the rest. It's why I'm willing to see what the development team does given the comments from Marsh on the podcast I linked to.
Mr. L, I certainly hope you're right about the new coaching staff's potential impact on pitching development because I for one would like to bury Cal Eldred once and for all and move on down the road.
Thankfully he's gone. Hopefully the years we had to endure it didn't ruin the next few.
Thanks for the great piece and analysis. I appreciated your comment on Stetter. At first I was a bit hesitant about making him the bullpen coach after his work with Minors. But, it's not like the Royals didn't make any changes in their Minor League development, as Jason Simontacchi, the pitching coordinator, was let go at end of last year. Makes me wonder if Simontacchi was kind of holding things back at Minor League level like Eldred at Majors.
Also, noticed a couple of changes in pitching coaches, particularly in AA where Carter is now the pitching coach instead of Derrick Lewis. AA pitchers were particularly bad last year especially and I think they kind of outweighed the Royals system as a whole. Do you think the move with Carter to Double-A will have a positive effect on Royals pitchers at that crucial level?
Thanks for reading, Kevin! What's funny is I've been reaching out to people, playing phone tag and all that for a couple of weeks now and Anne puts out her newsletter yesterday and it was just absolutely perfect to help round this out. I don't know exactly how influential Simontacchi was, but yeah, you never really know.
I've found that interesting too about Lewis. You're right, AA was an unmitigated disaster, so they had to make that move. I honestly can't tell you one way or another if Carter is going to be good or bad. I know that there are people who believe he has more to offer in a development role, so I guess we'll see. That's a terrible answer, but hopefully he can help get them back on track there.
Yeah it’s tough to tell too with Simontacchi. Just more curious that they didn’t reassign him which is what they’ve done with a lot of guys. Then again, maybe they did and he didn’t want to.
Agree about AA. Just too important of a level for that kind of performance to happen again. I’m more hopeful for Carter in that role and I thought in limited stunts he connected with the young starters when Eldred wasn’t around. But some improvement in AA will definitely be crucial next year
Great insight! I have not been this excited for a season in a few years. I fully believe that the change at the top, along with the AA change, the pitchers will improve. I know, much room to improve, but think about this.... if the pitching can improve 25%, that would be close to an 80 win season. We have the studs on the field, as 10-15%improvement from them. And I, for one, believe those numbers are achievable. In Anne's article, I believe, she stated how the clubhouse was tense. And now the players are EXCITED and LOOSE! I may be a dreamer, but every spring, don't we all dream just a little?
The clubhouse might be the biggest change, even with the pitching. You might remember I wrote a few weeks ago that someone said that change at the top was worth 10 wins. The more I hear, the more I think me discounting it was THAT much may have been wrong.
David’s getting excited and spring is in the air as he’s now onboard with a change at the top being worth 10 wins! Players win games, not upper management so I have my doubts. We’ll see though!
Players win games, management can lose games. I think management lost games.
Thanks David. I don’t know that I see it with all of these guys that the scouts quoted. I don’t see it with Bubic. His command is not near good enough. But regardless, I’m ready to be done with these guys. Not in the sense that move on from them, but I’m ready for this year to KNOW….you know? Lol Maybe that’s too much to ask for in one year…but we are 5 years in now. If it doesn’t work with Sweeney this year then I’m willing to say it’s the pitchers. I’m just glad we are finally to the point of finding out one way or the other and not the constant….maybe game the Royals have always been so good at. No improvement this year, let’s move on…I’m glad we are finally here.
Sure, his command isn't good enough now. Competent instruction might actually be able to pinpoint a delivery flaw or something that who was previously here couldn't. And even if they can't, they have so many of these guys that if Bubic isn't it, the next one might be.
Yep, very true. Regardless of player, it’s time to know on these guys now. As long as it progresses and the same thing doesn’t repeat itself next year about giving these guys more and more chances if it isn’t working I’ll be good.
I don't think they'll just release everyone or anything, but they are aware that the time is now to at least show that there's more in there than what we've seen.
Thanks, David. Very informative, interesting and encouraging. Given that horrible pitching development and performance at the big-league level was almost certainly the #1 reason for a turnover of the front office and club management, all of this is good news and clearly the focus for those changes.
However, I'm also interested in what the change in direction may be on the hitting side, given that we retained Zumwalt. What changes might Q help drive on that side of the house? How might they use analytics (now a big focus) to improve club hitting?
The hitting instruction is already very heavy in analytics and in using data. I'm sure there'll be some different methods brought over from Tampa regarding that, but they're very well regarded in the industry in their hitting development now.
Great evaluation. The success the Royals have in the future are going to further indict the DM -CE regime. I believe there are good years just ahead for the Royals. DM could do us one final favor, however, take Hunter Dozier off our hands. He is the one who liked him and over paid him.
I maintain that Dozier is off the team by August 1 one way or another.
Excellent article.
A problem that I see with Bubic, Keller, Kowar, etc is that they were brought up to be starting pitchers and now I don't even know if they would make good relief arms. Some of that is psychological on top of the skills stuff.
With the trades JJ has made, it looks like we're focused on preparing anyone coming up to be in the bullpen. Andrew Hoffman spent the offseason with our bullpen coaches.
With our "1st Round Class" it felt like there was a strategy of "we'll draft 5 of you and 1 or 2 might work into the rotation." Now it's starting to feel like "we'll get you in once you get x & y down and you'll get in as relief first... and then we'll work on your skills as you're in relief until you're ready to start"
This might be better for building up a culture for pitchers in this organization. During the Matheny era the pitching staff always came off as isolated.
Thanks for reading! I wouldn't put Keller in the group with any of the others for the simple reason that he's in his last year of team control and was actually pretty good for three years.
As for the rest, it's easy to look at anybody who has struggled and not see a reliever. Many were convinced Wade Davis would struggle in the bullpen. He was a little different because he'd done it before as a reliever and I'm certainly not saying any of these starters could be that good, but it's generally difficult to see struggling pitchers succeeding.
But if you look at Kowar's ability to hit upper-90s or more in a relief role with that changeup, I could see it. Lynch with the slider as a short-inning reliever? I could see it. Heasley has thrown much harder in his minor league career and he has some secondary pitches. I could see it. Bubic is the one who I just don't see, but that's okay too.
I don't mind the idea of breaking guys in as relievers, though, in general. I think it's a little old school, but it's been proven to work for a lot of pitchers.
If you look at every trade we've made it's been for a RP or RP that might have some hope of being an end of rotation guy (Sikkema/Way/Castillo). Even our draft picks were focused on finding Relief. Seems like before Dayton was fired there was some sort of Dave Ramsey / Caleb Hammer financial audit where we were setting up for development of the bullpen.
Outside of Salvy and Javy , I don't feel like we have pieces to trade for SP prospects. So we're going to have to deal with what we have for another season.
I absolutely hated the trade with the Yankees because it felt like Ken Waldichuk could have been a no.3 guy on opening day. And although I think the Royals generally trade good players and don't get Top 30 prospects in return (like the As or even Yankees - like they did with Gallo ) ... it feels like the Royals have some sort of strategy change so I'm hopefully it works out.
I think that's a little simplistic because in today's game so many pitchers are kind of on the border, especially as roles continue to evolve. If they do want to target starters in a trade, Salvy would likely bring one back, but so would MJ Melendez or others who they just aren't going to be trading anytime soon, nor should they.
I will tell you that the Yankees weren't trading Waldichuk for Benintendi.
Great summary. I wonder how quickly we'll see the impact of all this. Not sure if it's reasonable to expect results right away or if it takes time to implement a big overhaul.
Sometimes I think it could be quick if it's a tweak here or there, but then sometimes I think about some of the games they've pitched and think there may need to be a total overhaul and that takes time, so who knows? But it'll be interesting at least!
You’re not the only one haunted by that article! And I know I’m not alone feeling cheated by the Royals when I read how well Junis was doing with the Giants. I will be cautiously optimistic, though. Baseball is not boring!!
I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about Junis. I mentioned it in another comment, but he was working with basically the same batted ball profile early in the year that he had in 2021 with the Royals and then when he came back from an injury got hit around pretty hard.
It is interesting the Royals Weekly talked to Alec Marsh and he said that previously that they wouldnt stay in Surprise but retreated to private gyms in what Royals Weekly deemed the Royals cookie cutter approach. However Alec was excited as the new huys are light years ahead of the old regime in their approach to pitching development.
I think the point is that they were getting their own instruction outside of the organization and then getting multiple messages whereas now they're comfortable with what the organization is providing and everyone is on the same page.
It all goes back to poor coaching of the young arms. Coaches that didn't have a clue on how to develop, nurture and them or their pitch development. Coaches that never had them prepared to start games, were never ready when they came in to relieve, and some very poor pitch selection. Catchers even Perez that didn’t frame pitches properly and floating mitts which decreased some of their close strike calls. Way too many pitches wasted when up on batters
lurking for way too long, and really enjoying your knowledgable insight for a while, but had to subscribe after this article - well done!
I am a new royals fan, but longtime baseball fan. Happy to get on now before the bandwagon leaves. I think they could be a real "team" - which is rare these days. If Singer and greinke stay on track, and just one SP steps up? And the "kids" keep swinging and tcob?... I think the royals will be in contention sooner than later. Baseball is fun!
Thanks Herbie, glad you’re here! Any time there’s change, especially in an area that was clearly a problem, things at least get interesting!