Zack and Drew
One is near the end and one is just beginning, but both helped the Royals to an extra inning win.
When Zack Greinke made his big league debut, Drew Waters was about a month shy of turning five and a half. And on a crisp fall night in Cleveland, the two teamed up to get the Royals a win in their third to last game of the 2022 season. While there are two more games for Waters to finish his strong end to the season, the question turns to the future for both of them. Will Greinke return to the Royals on another one-year deal? How do the Royals handle Waters moving forward? Let’s start with Greinke.
He was a magician last night against the Guardians. Greinke ended up going six innings with two runs and one earned run allowed. And in 2022 vintage form, Greinke struck out just one batter and walked only one batter. He threw more pitches than you want (103) and probably didn’t throw as many strikes as you want (63), but you always feel that he’s working around his deficiencies as a pitcher who turns 39 in about two and a half weeks. He only had five swings and misses, which marked the ninth time in 26 starts that he got five whiffs or fewer.
He also gave up seven hits and was fighting with runners on base in so many innings. But he continued to escape. The Guardians were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position against Greinke and were just 3 for 12 with runners on base at all. His first escape in the second inning wasn’t terribly dramatic. Oscar Gonzalez singled and then advanced to second on one of four wild pitches by Royals pitching and he was doubled up on a line drive right to Bobby Witt Jr.
In the third, he did give up a run, but he worked around trouble pretty masterfully. It was a leadoff single by Gabrial Arias followed by an out by Austin Hedges before Myles Straw singled to get Arias to third. The Guardians lineup isn’t as bad as it could have been coming into the season, but it’s also pretty top heavy. So facing the top of their lineup with one out required some work. Steven Kwan hit into a fielder’s choice to score the run and then he gave up an infield single to Will Brennan that Michael Massey threw away to put runners on second and third with two outs for Jose Ramirez.
I thought he handled the Ramirez plate appearance perfectly. He threw two pitches out of the zone to start and then surprised Ramirez with a fastball down the middle. It was a mistake, but one Ramirez wasn’t prepared to attack. Greinke got a fortunate call just outside the zone to make it 2-2 and then he threw a fantastic cutter that Greinke even complimented Ramirez on the take.
For whatever it’s worth, it was probably a strike, but on the 3-2 pitch, Greinke buried a changeup that could only go one of two ways. It was either going to be a strike three swinging or ball four. It was ball four, but Greinke wanted the rookie, Gonzalez. He started Gonzalez with a curve out of the zone, but then came in with a changeup that Gonzalez fouled off. He stayed in the same general area with a fastball that Gonzalez tipped. And then fired off a curve that took about an hour to get to the plate.
That’s some great work. His fifth and sixth were more of the same. The fifth was a two-out rally by the Guardians with Kwan and Brennan singling and then moving to second and third on another wild pitch. He went all off-speed on Ramirez to get a routine ground ball to shortstop to end the inning. In the sixth, Gonzalez started things with a double and that’s when Greinke went to work again. First a groundout to the right side pushed the runner to third. Then Owen Miller hit a rocket up the middle.
It feels like a very Royals thing to get to two outs in these situations only to give up the runs. And sure they did it again, but this time, Greinke did work around it only to be undone by Bobby Witt Jr.’s second error since August 18. Bad timing. So the run scored, but Greinke showed off another masterful ability to escape. And that was sort of his season.
He finished his season third on the team in innings pitched with 137. He had a 3.68 ERA, a 4.03 FIP and was worth 1.8 fWAR and 2.5 bWAR. He only won four games and some of that is that he didn’t get deep into games, but as I’ve written before, he averaged about 16 outs per start, which is right at league average for starting pitchers. His 12.5 percent strikeout rate currently ranks as the lowest in baseball among starting pitchers with at least 130 innings. His 4.6 percent walk rate ranks as 11th-lowest in baseball in that same group. So you can see there is good and bad.
If he wants to come back, we know from JJ Picollo’s comments that he would be welcome. Greinke himself mentioned that he hasn’t decided what his future looks like, so we’ll see if he feels the same. I’ll write quite a bit more on this, but when you look at the Royals 2023 rotation, it’d be hard to turn down that kind of run prevention that Greinke has exhibited this season. You can’t build your rotation around him. In fact, you need other innings or a very strong bullpen given his inability to get deep into games consistently. But you can win with a rotation that includes a pitcher who puts together a season like Greinke did in 2022. I am hopeful they can and will bring him back.
On the other end of the spectrum, we know Waters is going to be back in 2023. He made his debut on August 22, which means he’s had the opportunity to get his feet wet at the big league level, but he won’t be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2028 season and is in no risk of even qualifying for Super 2 status, so it’s almost as if these 39 games he’ll spend with the big league club when it’s said and done are just a free audition. And what an audition it’s been for Waters.
It took him until his third game to get his first hit, but he had the game-winning RBI in his debut with a bases loaded walk and he’s now played in 30 games, started 26 and is hitting .261/.350/.523, which is good for a 144 wRC+. He has a walk rate of 11.9 percent, which is great and a strikeout rate of 32.7 percent, which is…less than great. So, just like Greinke, there is good with the bad, but the end results have been excellent, albeit in a smaller sample for Waters. I find it interesting that he hasn’t rated well defensively, but the sample has been exceptionally small.
Last night was arguably the best game he’s had because his hits were arguably his most important. He hit into some good fortune in the second inning with his first RBI of the game. The little grounder he hit to first was a hit because of a miscommunication by the Guardians, but sometimes you need a little luck. He did strike out twice in his next two at bats, but then he came to the plate in the top of the 10th inning after an error by the Guardians and, well, he hit a ball hard and far.
It continued an outstanding series he’s had in Cleveland. He’s now 6 for 15 with three home runs, a double and eight runs batted in. There has been a lot of talk about his strikeout rate, which is absolutely too high, but I wonder a little bit if it might be a touch inflated. He has a swinging strike rate of 12.7 percent this season. It’s high, yes, but that is right in line with hitters who are very good.
Andres Gimenez, Willy Adames, Trea Turner, Matt Olson, Eugenio Suarez, Eduardo Escobar and Shohei Ohtani are the qualified hitters who are sitting between 12.5 percent and 12.9 percent on their swinging strike rate. Among those six hitters, their wRC+ ranges from 106 (Escobar) to 144 (Ohtani).
Just because hitters in that range find themselves very successful offensively doesn’t guarantee that Waters will continue down the path he’s shown. But I do think that shows the strikeout rate could come down some over time as long as the swinging strike rate remains. Among those six hitters, only Suarez has a strikeout rate higher than 30 percent, but if he can bring that rate down to a more reasonable 26-28 percent even, it could mean great things for him offensively.
I think we’ve seen just how easy the power can be. His .360 BABIP is a bit inflated, but even if we see him as a .230-.240 hitter with his ability to take a walk and his power along with the defense I expect to see from him, that’s an exceptionally valuable player.
What does he mean for the future? Michael A. Taylor has hit .159/.206/.175. He’ll make $4.5 million next season. I believe there’s a market for him regardless of this poor finish, but I wonder if the Royals will keep him around as specifically a fourth outfielder, which is where he belongs. With an outfield of MJ Melendez, Waters and some combination of Edward Olivares and Kyle Isbel, it wouldn’t hurt to have a veteran hanging around. If they want to trade Taylor and sign a corner outfielder with some experience (Mitch Haniger maybe?), I think that would work too.
But what we know for certain is that both Waters and Greinke have done more than enough in 2022 to know that they can be a part of a 2023 team that has a chance to improve and maybe even improve greatly with the right moves. Last night was a fun look at the two of them working to get the Royals a win. I think it would be fun to see a lot more of that next season.
Gotta give it to JJ - getting Drew and a couple of other players for the 35th pick in the draft now looks like a pretty good move. Let's give credit where credit is deserved. No way this was a Dayton Moore move.
Whew, so glad he caught that ball at his face. That would have been an awful end to his career. He's always been such a good fielder and it really saved his brain and his face. So happy to have had him back this year.