Great column as always. I'm curious to see if Nelson V is a great as he looked. He was quite the basher for a really short amount of time. He looked like a clean up hitter who might hit 50 bombs.
It’s a new year, time for hope. I’m not even going to disagree with anything. I would only add they need to add another starter. And maybe that someone is internally that replaces Lyles. But I would love another starter even if they start in AAA. You can stay competitive alot longer with depth on the pitching side than outscoring teams. I mean, you have to get lucky and stay pretty healthy as well…but you already stated that. But if they could find one more starter….to add to that second tier of depth even that has some potential….would certainly help.
I think I’m just most excited about where they are. Record whatever…IDK. I think in the 70’s too. BUT…..they are to the point (I hope and its not just the blue colored glasses) that if they can sign a la Chris Young type for cheap, and somehow trade for a starter yet. Well….that’s only a couple IF’s anymore. You do that and you’re pretty darn close to average on offense, and average on the pitching side. Average + average = pretty darn close to .500 ball and that keeps you in things so much longer.
For sure. Especially in the AL Central. I know I’m a broken record but I always think teams can be +/- 10 wins from true talent. If they can get to 80, well, there’s the shot at 90.
To borrow a line, I’ll have what you’re having. Actually, though, I think this type of jump would be counterproductive, because the Royals would likely think they’ve fixed everything and stop spending, keep guys too long, etc. Give me a 75 win team with considerable improvement from the young players and I’d be happy--as long as they keep building.
Great article. At least there is some reason for hope. Additional pitching is where we could be much more competitive than in recent years. Still not sure why Garcia is not getting more love. Lumping in one of your top guys in BA and OBP with “guys who can hit but haven’t” like Massey & Isbel makes little sense. Although a small sample size, we have to give Loftin every opportunity to show that his few weeks were not a fluke.
I like Garcia, but he had a wRC+ of 84. And a .272/.323 average and OBP is fine but nothing to get excited about. Like I wrote a couple of weeks ago, there’s upside for sure but he 100% can hit but hasn’t.
Fantastic article, David! Very fun read while we dream our way through a chilly January. I’m a glass half full guy so I’m squinting to see a contender in this AL Central. And really hoping we get lucky on the health front with close to full seasons from Lugo and Wacha. Will be a massive buzzkill if we get bad injury luck early and are staring at Lyles as our #3 starter again in May or June. Ugh. Sorry for even writing that!
Uplifting column. Sometimes I need to read your column twice. I had about twenty pre spring trainings with the Red Sox and now about 40 with the Royals.
I'm pretty much as optimistic about the Royals as you can get. David, the fact that you, a much more level-headed realist than I, wrote an article that pretty much echoes my logic for the upcoming season makes me very happy.
Like you, I can't say I am predicting a 90-win season, but I think it is definitely in the realm of possibility. A 34-win improvement is nearly unheard of but as you've pointed out, winning 56 games last year took a LOT of bad luck. Flip the Royals' luck to neutral and now it's not so unsurmountable. Now let's imagine a world in which the 2023 Royals got 6-8 wins luckier than the numbers indicate they deserved - now we're looking at a 68-74 win team. Jumping from 74 wins to 90 is a nice improvement, but not unreasonable.
Now when you add in the (potential) extra wins from full seasons of MVP-candidate Witt and Cy Young-candidate Ragans, the extra wins we expect Wacha and Lugo to provide, and the boost adding Renfroe, Smith, Anderson and Stratton should provide, 90 wins seems very attainable - and we haven't yet really counted on anyone improving year-to-year. We also haven't considered what having Velazquez for a full season does. Yes, it probably takes a lot of good luck (and very little bad luck) and basically no regression, but a lot of playoff teams benefit from good luck.
I fully acknowledge that it's not a brilliant piece of analysis to say that a 56-win team has a lot of room to improve, but when you break it down, it really is striking just how many ways the Royals can build a winning season.
My expectation (which is where my optimism really shines through) is a .500 season, which is a fantastic 25-win improvement.
Great column as always. I'm curious to see if Nelson V is a great as he looked. He was quite the basher for a really short amount of time. He looked like a clean up hitter who might hit 50 bombs.
He did have that look. I probably did a bad job not mentioning him at all here because he can help lengthen that lineup a lot.
It’s a new year, time for hope. I’m not even going to disagree with anything. I would only add they need to add another starter. And maybe that someone is internally that replaces Lyles. But I would love another starter even if they start in AAA. You can stay competitive alot longer with depth on the pitching side than outscoring teams. I mean, you have to get lucky and stay pretty healthy as well…but you already stated that. But if they could find one more starter….to add to that second tier of depth even that has some potential….would certainly help.
Yeah, agreed. I’ll be interested to see who is available come mid-February a la Chris Young in 2015. Might see that move come at that time.
I think I’m just most excited about where they are. Record whatever…IDK. I think in the 70’s too. BUT…..they are to the point (I hope and its not just the blue colored glasses) that if they can sign a la Chris Young type for cheap, and somehow trade for a starter yet. Well….that’s only a couple IF’s anymore. You do that and you’re pretty darn close to average on offense, and average on the pitching side. Average + average = pretty darn close to .500 ball and that keeps you in things so much longer.
For sure. Especially in the AL Central. I know I’m a broken record but I always think teams can be +/- 10 wins from true talent. If they can get to 80, well, there’s the shot at 90.
To borrow a line, I’ll have what you’re having. Actually, though, I think this type of jump would be counterproductive, because the Royals would likely think they’ve fixed everything and stop spending, keep guys too long, etc. Give me a 75 win team with considerable improvement from the young players and I’d be happy--as long as they keep building.
If you want a 75-win team then you’re already having what I’m having!
Excellent point!
Great article. At least there is some reason for hope. Additional pitching is where we could be much more competitive than in recent years. Still not sure why Garcia is not getting more love. Lumping in one of your top guys in BA and OBP with “guys who can hit but haven’t” like Massey & Isbel makes little sense. Although a small sample size, we have to give Loftin every opportunity to show that his few weeks were not a fluke.
I like Garcia, but he had a wRC+ of 84. And a .272/.323 average and OBP is fine but nothing to get excited about. Like I wrote a couple of weeks ago, there’s upside for sure but he 100% can hit but hasn’t.
Fantastic article, David! Very fun read while we dream our way through a chilly January. I’m a glass half full guy so I’m squinting to see a contender in this AL Central. And really hoping we get lucky on the health front with close to full seasons from Lugo and Wacha. Will be a massive buzzkill if we get bad injury luck early and are staring at Lyles as our #3 starter again in May or June. Ugh. Sorry for even writing that!
Hey, it could happen! The path to 60 wins is possible too haha.
It is...I think we all learned that last year.
Uplifting column. Sometimes I need to read your column twice. I had about twenty pre spring trainings with the Red Sox and now about 40 with the Royals.
I'm pretty much as optimistic about the Royals as you can get. David, the fact that you, a much more level-headed realist than I, wrote an article that pretty much echoes my logic for the upcoming season makes me very happy.
Like you, I can't say I am predicting a 90-win season, but I think it is definitely in the realm of possibility. A 34-win improvement is nearly unheard of but as you've pointed out, winning 56 games last year took a LOT of bad luck. Flip the Royals' luck to neutral and now it's not so unsurmountable. Now let's imagine a world in which the 2023 Royals got 6-8 wins luckier than the numbers indicate they deserved - now we're looking at a 68-74 win team. Jumping from 74 wins to 90 is a nice improvement, but not unreasonable.
Now when you add in the (potential) extra wins from full seasons of MVP-candidate Witt and Cy Young-candidate Ragans, the extra wins we expect Wacha and Lugo to provide, and the boost adding Renfroe, Smith, Anderson and Stratton should provide, 90 wins seems very attainable - and we haven't yet really counted on anyone improving year-to-year. We also haven't considered what having Velazquez for a full season does. Yes, it probably takes a lot of good luck (and very little bad luck) and basically no regression, but a lot of playoff teams benefit from good luck.
I fully acknowledge that it's not a brilliant piece of analysis to say that a 56-win team has a lot of room to improve, but when you break it down, it really is striking just how many ways the Royals can build a winning season.
My expectation (which is where my optimism really shines through) is a .500 season, which is a fantastic 25-win improvement.