Royals Roster Projection 3, Part 2: The Arms

Because pitching with their legs only would look super weird.

You want movement in my projections? Here they are. The pitching staff is getting a bit of a makeover from the last projection I gave a couple weeks ago. Keep in mind the fact that we will likely see young pitching backed off every so often throughout the season to limit the workloads and you’ll realize that the Opening Day roster isn’t that big of a deal. Truly, it isn’t every year, but maybe more so this year for pitchers than ever.

As with yesterday’s look at the bats, I’m using spring stats instead of projection system numbers, so you can see how they’re doing.

Starters

Brad Keller
9.1 IP, 5.79 ERA, 6 K, 7 BB

Mike Minor
5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 8 K, 1 BB

Brady Singer
7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 11 K, 3 BB

Danny Duffy
9.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 6 K, 3 BB

Jakob Junis*
5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 7 K, 0 BB

Outside Looking In

Kris Bubic
5.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 2 K, 2BB

Ervin Santana
8.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5 K, 1 BB

Carlos Hernandez
6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 9 K, 2 BB

Daniel Lynch
6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 9 K, 4 BB

Jackson Kowar
7.1 IP, 9.82 ERA, 8 K, 4 BB

You can see above the change I’ve made that’s sort of big. I have Junis in and Bubic out. I’m not confident about this in any way, shape or form, but the way they’ve talked up Junis and his new cutter and the way he’s looked in spring makes me think there’s a chance this happens. I took Asa Lacy and Ronald Bolaños out of the outside looking in as neither has thrown a spring training pitch yet.

As I said above, almost all of these guys are likely to get a chance. Maybe Santana opts out and tries to find a job elsewhere, but otherwise, we’re going to see a lot of movement on the pitching staff. And that’s where the Bubic question comes into play. At some point, he’s likely to not pitch for a couple weeks or more as the Royals work to massage his innings. Is there a real difference if it’s to start the year or mid-season?

Relievers

Greg Holland
4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 K, 1BB

Jesse Hahn
4.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 2 K, 1 BB

Scott Barlow
4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 K, 3 BB

Josh Staumont
1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 K, 0 BB

Kyle Zimmer
4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 3 K, 4 BB

Wade Davis
5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 K, 3 BB

Jake Brentz*
4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7 K, 4 BB

Brad Brach*
3.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 3 K, 3 BB

Richard Lovelady
4.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 K, 1 BB

Outside Looking In

Tyler Zuber
3.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 4 K, 3 BB

Jake Newberry
4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7 K, 3 BB

Scott Blewett
1.2 IP, 10.80 ERA, 3 K, 2 BB

Gabe Speier
1.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 K, 0 BB

Last night might make you think I’m crazy for adding Brach to the projection after not having him in before, but I thought he was in before last night and I don’t think the Royals will use one outing against him. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s happened before. He’ll require a 40-man move, so it could be that one brutal outing could be bad for him, but for now I’m sticking with it.

I’m also sticking with 14 pitchers, which means nine relievers. The Royals have enough position player versatility and will want to keep as many arms fresh throughout the season as they can that it makes some sense to have this many pitchers on the roster. The other new name is Brentz above, which might spell the end of Scott Blewett. I just think the Royals love what Brentz brings from the left side. With he and Staumont in the bullpen, they’ll have a couple guys who can bring it consistently at 100 MPH+.

On the topic of Staumont, it was recently revealed that his late start was due to a nasty battle with COVID-19, and while he looked very good in his first appearance of the spring Monday, I think there’s at least a chance he opens on the IL while he keeps regaining strength. If that’s the case, either Newberry or the recently optioned Zuber will get the spot, which is why I left Zuber here in spite of his option yesterday. With the addition of Brentz, I’m not entirely sold that Lovelady makes the team, so that spot could go to one of the two as well. But again, it’s a matter of when, not if, a lot of these pitchers make it to the big leagues this season.

Opening Day is two weeks from tomorrow. I’ll have one more roster projection between now and then, so stay tuned to see how I think it’ll all shake out.